Tank DellorTez Johnson?
Week 9 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Tank Dell
Tank Dell outscores Tez Johnson in 55% of simulations.
Tez Johnson still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Tank Dell is the better bet, not a sure thing. Tez Johnson projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Tez Johnson has the better matchup against the Chicago Bears (12% more than average to WRs); Tank Dell faces the Los Angeles Chargers (8% fewer than average to WRs). Tank Dell still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.4
- Median
- 4.2
- Ceiling
- 9.0
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 72%
- Floor
- 0.6
- Median
- 3.6
- Ceiling
- 11.2
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 70%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Tank DellWR, HOU, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET | Tez JohnsonWR, TB, Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 4.8 | 4.9 |
| PPR projection | 5.2 | 5.6 |
| Standard projection | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| Rank this week | WR56 | WR55 |
| Matchup | at LAC | at CHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.0 | 3.8 |
| Last season per game | — | 5.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 23% | 42% |
| Trade value | — | — |