2026 dynasty QB rankings

Who to hold for the next four seasons, not just this one, on a 0–100 scale. Half-PPR, 12-team, one-quarterback leagues.

Rank	Player	Value	Age	Per game
1	Josh AllenBUF	82	30	28.8
2	Patrick MahomesKC	38	31	22.4
3	Brock PurdySF	37	26	21.8
4	Caleb WilliamsCHI	27	24	19.7
5	Jared GoffDET	21	31	19.8
6	Jalen HurtsPHI	20	28	19.3
7	Bryce YoungCAR	18	25	18.9
8	Trevor LawrenceJAX	13	26	18.2
9	Dak PrescottDAL	12	33	20.1
10	Lamar JacksonBAL	10	29	17.7
11	Tyler ShoughNO	9	26	17.6
12	Matthew StaffordLAR	7	38	19.0
13	Deshaun WatsonCLE	5	31	17.1
14	Drake MayeNE	4	24	16.2
15	Fernando MendozaLV, rookie (1st round)	3	22	15.3
16	Ty SimpsonLAR, rookie (1st round)	2	23	15.3
17	C.J. StroudHOU	1	24	15.6

How we rank: we start from each player's projected half-PPR points per game, the same number behind our weekly and rest-of-season rankings. For players in their first three seasons, that small sample is blended with what players drafted in the same range (1st round, 2nd–3rd round, later or undrafted) at the same position, in their second to fourth seasons, score now. Draft capital can lift a young player but never drag down one who is already producing.

Then we age it. Before a player's peak, we expect points per game to grow a little each year; after it, to fall. Peak ages: QB 26–33, RB 23–26, WR 24–29, TE 25–30. Running backs fall fastest (15% a year past 26), quarterbacks last. These curves are rules of thumb, not fitted to data.

Value is points above a replacement-level player at the position, added up over the rest of this season and the next three, with each later season counting 80% as much as the one before. The top player is 100. Injured-reserve players lose part of this season only. The Per game column is the starting estimate, before aging.