Alex BachmanorZavion Thomas?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Zavion Thomas
Zavion Thomas outscores Alex Bachman in 70% of simulations.
Alex Bachman still comes out ahead in the other 30%, so Zavion Thomas is the better bet, not a sure thing. Zavion Thomas projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Zavion Thomas faces the New York Jets (4% fewer than average to WRs), Alex Bachman faces the Philadelphia Eagles (7% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Zavion Thomas wins 80%; in Standard leagues, Zavion Thomas wins 62%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.0
- Median
- 0.1
- Ceiling
- 0.5
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- >99%
- Floor
- 0.1
- Median
- 0.3
- Ceiling
- 0.6
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Alex BachmanWR, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Zavion ThomasWR, CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| PPR projection | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Standard projection | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Rank this week | WR127 | WR126 |
| Matchup | at PHI | vs NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | — | 0.3 |
| Last season per game | 0.2 | — |
| Snap share, last game | — | 11% |
| Trade value | — | — |