Cade OttonorZach Ertz?

Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.

Our call

Lean Zach Ertz

Zach Ertz outscores Cade Otton in 53% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Cade Otton comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Zach Ertz, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Zach Ertz projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Zach Ertz faces the Los Angeles Rams (14% fewer than average to TEs), Cade Otton faces the Green Bay Packers (13% fewer than average to TEs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Cade Otton
Floor
1.5
Median
4.6
Ceiling
10.8
Big game (15+):
3%
Dud (under 5):
54%
Zach Ertz
Floor
1.7
Median
4.9
Ceiling
10.8
Big game (15+):
3%
Dud (under 5):
51%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatCade OttonTE, TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETZach ErtzTE, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection5.65.7
PPR projection7.47.1
Standard projection3.94.3
Rank this weekTE27TE26
Matchupvs GBvs LAR
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game5.81.4
Last season per game6.27.8
Snap share, last game94%38%
Trade value——