Colston LovelandorZach Ertz?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Zach Ertz
Zach Ertz outscores Colston Loveland in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Colston Loveland comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Zach Ertz, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Zach Ertz projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Colston Loveland has the better matchup against the New York Jets (2% fewer than average to TEs); Zach Ertz faces the Los Angeles Rams (14% fewer than average to TEs). Zach Ertz still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.0
- Median
- 4.3
- Ceiling
- 12.3
- Big game (15+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 5):
- 56%
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 4.9
- Ceiling
- 10.8
- Big game (15+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 5):
- 51%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Colston LovelandTE, CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Zach ErtzTE, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.6 | 5.7 |
| PPR projection | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| Standard projection | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| Rank this week | TE28 | TE26 |
| Matchup | vs NYJ | vs LAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 2.0 | 1.4 |
| Last season per game | 8.5 | 7.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 79% | 38% |
| Trade value | — | — |