Dalton KincaidorJake Ferguson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Dalton Kincaid
Dalton Kincaid outscores Jake Ferguson in 56% of simulations.
Jake Ferguson still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Dalton Kincaid is the better bet, not a sure thing. Dalton Kincaid projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Dalton Kincaid faces the New England Patriots (10% fewer than average to TEs), Jake Ferguson faces the Houston Texans (9% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.4
- Ceiling
- 18.2
- Big game (15+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 5):
- 25%
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 7.2
- Ceiling
- 16.3
- Big game (15+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 5):
- 33%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dalton KincaidTE, BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jake FergusonTE, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.6 | 8.6 |
| PPR projection | 11.4 | 10.5 |
| Standard projection | 7.8 | 6.7 |
| Rank this week | TE12 | TE14 |
| Matchup | vs NE | at HOU |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.4 | 9.2 |
| Last season per game | 8.9 | 8.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 67% | 69% |
| Trade value | 7 | — |