Dalton KincaidorJake Ferguson?
Week 10 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Dalton Kincaid
Dalton Kincaid outscores Jake Ferguson in 64% of simulations.
Jake Ferguson still comes out ahead in the other 36%, so Dalton Kincaid is the better bet, not a sure thing. Dalton Kincaid projects 2.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Dalton Kincaid has the better matchup against the New York Jets (11% more than average to TEs); Jake Ferguson faces the San Francisco 49ers (3% more than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 7.8
- Ceiling
- 17.8
- Big game (15+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 5):
- 30%
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 12.9
- Big game (15+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 5):
- 47%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dalton KincaidTE, BUF, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jake FergusonTE, DAL, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.0 | 6.6 |
| PPR projection | 10.9 | 8.2 |
| Standard projection | 7.2 | 5.0 |
| Rank this week | TE8 | TE23 |
| Matchup | at NYJ | vs SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.7 | 5.6 |
| Last season per game | 8.9 | 8.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 50% | 34% |
| Trade value | — | — |