Dalton KincaidorIsaiah Likely?
Week 5 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Dalton Kincaid
Dalton Kincaid outscores Isaiah Likely in 56% of simulations.
Isaiah Likely still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Dalton Kincaid is the better bet, not a sure thing. Dalton Kincaid projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Isaiah Likely has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (32% more than average to TEs); Dalton Kincaid faces the Los Angeles Rams (19% fewer than average to TEs). Dalton Kincaid still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 6.6
- Ceiling
- 15.3
- Big game (15+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 5):
- 36%
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 5.9
- Ceiling
- 16.2
- Big game (15+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 5):
- 44%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dalton KincaidTE, BUF, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 p.m. ET | Isaiah LikelyTE, NYG, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.7 | 7.5 |
| PPR projection | 9.2 | 9.6 |
| Standard projection | 6.2 | 5.4 |
| Rank this week | TE12 | TE14 |
| Matchup | at LAR | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.6 | 10.5 |
| Last season per game | 8.9 | 4.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 59% | 66% |
| Trade value | 6 | — |