Dalton KincaidorTravis Kelce?
Week 10 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce outscores Dalton Kincaid in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Dalton Kincaid comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Travis Kelce, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Dalton Kincaid projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Dalton Kincaid has the better matchup against the New York Jets (11% more than average to TEs); Travis Kelce faces the Atlanta Falcons (16% fewer than average to TEs). Travis Kelce still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 7.8
- Ceiling
- 17.8
- Big game (15+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 5):
- 30%
- Floor
- 3.1
- Median
- 7.9
- Ceiling
- 16.2
- Big game (15+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 5):
- 25%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dalton KincaidTE, BUF, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Travis KelceTE, KC, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.0 | 8.9 |
| PPR projection | 10.9 | 10.8 |
| Standard projection | 7.2 | 6.9 |
| Rank this week | TE8 | TE9 |
| Matchup | at NYJ | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.7 | 10.3 |
| Last season per game | 8.9 | 9.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 50% | 70% |
| Trade value | — | 12 |