Darren WallerorHarold Fannin Jr.?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Harold Fannin Jr.
Harold Fannin Jr. outscores Darren Waller in 57% of simulations.
Darren Waller still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Harold Fannin Jr. is the better bet, not a sure thing. Harold Fannin Jr. projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Darren Waller has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (45% more than average to TEs); Harold Fannin Jr. faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (11% more than average to TEs). Harold Fannin Jr. still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 8.2
- Ceiling
- 21.0
- Big game (15+):
- 22%
- Dud (under 5):
- 30%
- Floor
- 3.6
- Median
- 9.7
- Ceiling
- 19.8
- Big game (15+):
- 22%
- Dud (under 5):
- 18%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Darren WallerTE, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET | Harold Fannin Jr.TE, CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.4 | 11.0 |
| PPR projection | 12.1 | 13.6 |
| Standard projection | 8.6 | 8.5 |
| Rank this week | TE8 | TE5 |
| Matchup | vs DET | vs PIT |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.4 | 10.5 |
| Last season per game | 8.5 | 9.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 51% | 86% |
| Trade value | — | 9 |