Darren WallerorHarold Fannin Jr.?

Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.

Our call

Start Harold Fannin Jr.

Harold Fannin Jr. outscores Darren Waller in 57% of simulations.

Darren Waller still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Harold Fannin Jr. is the better bet, not a sure thing. Harold Fannin Jr. projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Darren Waller has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (45% more than average to TEs); Harold Fannin Jr. faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (11% more than average to TEs). Harold Fannin Jr. still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Darren Waller
Floor
2.2
Median
8.2
Ceiling
21.0
Big game (15+):
22%
Dud (under 5):
30%
Harold Fannin Jr.
Floor
3.6
Median
9.7
Ceiling
19.8
Big game (15+):
22%
Dud (under 5):
18%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDarren WallerTE, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ETHarold Fannin Jr.TE, CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection10.411.0
PPR projection12.113.6
Standard projection8.68.5
Rank this weekTE8TE5
Matchupvs DETvs PIT
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game9.410.5
Last season per game8.59.4
Snap share, last game51%86%
Trade value—9