Darren WallerorGeorge Kittle?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start George Kittle
George Kittle outscores Darren Waller in 63% of simulations.
Darren Waller still comes out ahead in the other 37%, so George Kittle is the better bet, not a sure thing. George Kittle projects 3.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Darren Waller has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (45% more than average to TEs); George Kittle faces the Denver Broncos (3% more than average to TEs). George Kittle still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 20.5
- Big game (15+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 5):
- 31%
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 11.8
- Ceiling
- 25.2
- Big game (15+):
- 36%
- Dud (under 5):
- 14%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Darren WallerTE, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET | George KittleTE, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.2 | 13.4 |
| PPR projection | 11.9 | 15.8 |
| Standard projection | 8.5 | 10.9 |
| Rank this week | TE6 | TE2 |
| Matchup | vs DET | vs DEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.4 | 13.8 |
| Last season per game | 8.5 | 12.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 51% | 85% |
| Trade value | — | 29 |