Darren WallerorT.J. Hockenson?
Week 7 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean T.J. Hockenson
T.J. Hockenson outscores Darren Waller in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Darren Waller comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean T.J. Hockenson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Darren Waller projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Darren Waller has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (18% more than average to TEs); T.J. Hockenson faces the Indianapolis Colts (8% more than average to TEs). T.J. Hockenson still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Darren Waller is the pick at 55%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.4
- Median
- 6.1
- Ceiling
- 16.7
- Big game (15+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 5):
- 41%
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 6.7
- Ceiling
- 15.0
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 34%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Darren WallerTE, CAR, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET | T.J. HockensonTE, MIN, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.0 | 7.8 |
| PPR projection | 9.4 | 10.2 |
| Standard projection | 6.6 | 5.4 |
| Rank this week | TE11 | TE14 |
| Matchup | vs TB | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.7 | 7.5 |
| Last season per game | 8.5 | 5.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 46% | 3% |
| Trade value | — | — |