Darren WallerorKyle Pitts?
Week 6 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Darren Waller
Darren Waller outscores Kyle Pitts in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Kyle Pitts comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Darren Waller, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Darren Waller projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Kyle Pitts has the better matchup against the Chicago Bears (20% fewer than average to TEs); Darren Waller faces the Philadelphia Eagles (37% fewer than average to TEs). Darren Waller still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 5.6
- Ceiling
- 14.3
- Big game (15+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 5):
- 45%
- Floor
- 1.1
- Median
- 4.9
- Ceiling
- 14.2
- Big game (15+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 5):
- 51%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Darren WallerTE, CAR, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kyle PittsTE, ATL, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.1 | 6.6 |
| PPR projection | 8.4 | 8.3 |
| Standard projection | 5.9 | 5.0 |
| Rank this week | TE15 | TE17 |
| Matchup | at PHI | vs CHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.3 | 4.4 |
| Last season per game | 8.5 | 9.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 53% | 67% |
| Trade value | — | — |