Brenton StrangeorDalton Kincaid?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Dalton Kincaid
Dalton Kincaid outscores Brenton Strange in 59% of simulations.
Brenton Strange still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Dalton Kincaid is the better bet, not a sure thing. Dalton Kincaid projects 1.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Brenton Strange has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (53% more than average to TEs); Dalton Kincaid faces the New England Patriots (10% fewer than average to TEs). Dalton Kincaid still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.8
- Median
- 6.8
- Ceiling
- 13.8
- Big game (15+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 5):
- 31%
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.4
- Ceiling
- 18.2
- Big game (15+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 5):
- 25%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brenton StrangeTE, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Dalton KincaidTE, BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.7 | 9.6 |
| PPR projection | 9.6 | 11.4 |
| Standard projection | 5.9 | 7.8 |
| Rank this week | TE16 | TE12 |
| Matchup | at CIN | vs NE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.6 | 12.4 |
| Last season per game | 7.9 | 8.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 77% | 67% |
| Trade value | — | 7 |