Dalton SchultzorMike Gesicki?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz outscores Mike Gesicki in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Mike Gesicki comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Dalton Schultz, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Dalton Schultz projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Dalton Schultz faces the Dallas Cowboys (1% more than average to TEs), Mike Gesicki faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (4% fewer than average to TEs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Dalton Schultz wins 60%; in Standard leagues, Mike Gesicki is the pick at 52%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.8
- Median
- 7.7
- Ceiling
- 16.6
- Big game (15+):
- 14%
- Dud (under 5):
- 27%
- Floor
- 1.9
- Median
- 6.5
- Ceiling
- 15.7
- Big game (15+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 5):
- 36%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dalton SchultzTE, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Mike GesickiTE, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.0 | 7.9 |
| PPR projection | 11.7 | 9.3 |
| Standard projection | 6.2 | 6.5 |
| Rank this week | TE13 | TE15 |
| Matchup | vs DAL | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.0 | 13.8 |
| Last season per game | 8.0 | 4.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 54% | 51% |
| Trade value | — | — |