Dalton SchultzorMike Gesicki?

Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.

Our call

Lean Dalton Schultz

Dalton Schultz outscores Mike Gesicki in 55% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Mike Gesicki comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Dalton Schultz, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Dalton Schultz projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Dalton Schultz faces the Dallas Cowboys (1% more than average to TEs), Mike Gesicki faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (4% fewer than average to TEs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Dalton Schultz wins 60%; in Standard leagues, Mike Gesicki is the pick at 52%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Dalton Schultz
Floor
2.8
Median
7.7
Ceiling
16.6
Big game (15+):
14%
Dud (under 5):
27%
Mike Gesicki
Floor
1.9
Median
6.5
Ceiling
15.7
Big game (15+):
11%
Dud (under 5):
36%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDalton SchultzTE, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETMike GesickiTE, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection9.07.9
PPR projection11.79.3
Standard projection6.26.5
Rank this weekTE13TE15
Matchupvs DALvs JAX
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game10.013.8
Last season per game8.04.7
Snap share, last game54%51%
Trade value——