Mike GesickiorSam LaPorta?

Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.

Our call

Start Sam LaPorta

Sam LaPorta outscores Mike Gesicki in 59% of simulations.

Mike Gesicki still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Sam LaPorta is the better bet, not a sure thing. Sam LaPorta projects 1.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Sam LaPorta has the better matchup against the Carolina Panthers (6% more than average to TEs); Mike Gesicki faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (4% fewer than average to TEs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Mike Gesicki
Floor
1.9
Median
6.5
Ceiling
15.7
Big game (15+):
11%
Dud (under 5):
36%
Sam LaPorta
Floor
3.2
Median
8.4
Ceiling
17.6
Big game (15+):
16%
Dud (under 5):
24%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatMike GesickiTE, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETSam LaPortaTE, DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection7.99.7
PPR projection9.312.0
Standard projection6.57.4
Rank this weekTE15TE11
Matchupvs JAXat CAR
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game13.89.1
Last season per game4.79.7
Snap share, last game51%92%
Trade value—2