Kyle PittsorMike Gesicki?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Mike Gesicki
Mike Gesicki outscores Kyle Pitts in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Kyle Pitts comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Mike Gesicki, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Both project 6.9 half-PPR points in Week 4. Kyle Pitts has the better matchup against the New Orleans Saints (8% more than average to TEs); Mike Gesicki faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (4% fewer than average to TEs). Mike Gesicki still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.1
- Median
- 5.1
- Ceiling
- 14.9
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 49%
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 5.7
- Ceiling
- 13.7
- Big game (15+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 5):
- 43%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Kyle PittsTE, ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | Mike GesickiTE, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.9 | 6.9 |
| PPR projection | 8.8 | 8.3 |
| Standard projection | 5.1 | 5.6 |
| Rank this week | TE17 | TE16 |
| Matchup | at NO | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 1.0 | 13.8 |
| Last season per game | 9.8 | 4.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 59% | 51% |
| Trade value | — | — |