Dalton KincaidorT.J. Hockenson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean T.J. Hockenson
T.J. Hockenson outscores Dalton Kincaid in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Dalton Kincaid comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean T.J. Hockenson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. T.J. Hockenson projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. T.J. Hockenson has the better matchup against the New Orleans Saints (8% more than average to TEs); Dalton Kincaid faces the Los Angeles Rams (19% fewer than average to TEs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Dalton Kincaid is the pick at 55%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 6.6
- Ceiling
- 15.3
- Big game (15+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 5):
- 36%
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 6.7
- Ceiling
- 15.0
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 34%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dalton KincaidTE, BUF, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 p.m. ET | T.J. HockensonTE, MIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.7 | 7.8 |
| PPR projection | 9.2 | 10.2 |
| Standard projection | 6.2 | 5.4 |
| Rank this week | TE12 | TE11 |
| Matchup | at LAR | at NO |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.6 | 9.1 |
| Last season per game | 8.9 | 5.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 59% | 83% |
| Trade value | 6 | — |