Dalton SchultzorIsaiah Likely?

Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.

Our call

Start Dalton Schultz

Dalton Schultz outscores Isaiah Likely in 61% of simulations.

Isaiah Likely still comes out ahead in the other 39%, so Dalton Schultz is the better bet, not a sure thing. Dalton Schultz projects 1.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Isaiah Likely has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (31% more than average to TEs); Dalton Schultz faces the Dallas Cowboys (1% more than average to TEs). Dalton Schultz still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Dalton Schultz
Floor
2.8
Median
7.7
Ceiling
16.6
Big game (15+):
14%
Dud (under 5):
27%
Isaiah Likely
Floor
1.1
Median
5.7
Ceiling
16.6
Big game (15+):
13%
Dud (under 5):
46%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDalton SchultzTE, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETIsaiah LikelyTE, NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection9.07.5
PPR projection11.79.5
Standard projection6.25.6
Rank this weekTE13TE17
Matchupvs DALvs ARI
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game10.010.6
Last season per game8.04.0
Snap share, last game54%84%
Trade value——