Dallas GoedertorDarren Waller?
Week 9 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Dallas Goedert
Dallas Goedert outscores Darren Waller in 56% of simulations.
Darren Waller still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Dallas Goedert is the better bet, not a sure thing. Dallas Goedert projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Darren Waller has the better matchup against the Denver Broncos (11% more than average to TEs); Dallas Goedert faces the New York Giants (16% fewer than average to TEs). Dallas Goedert still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 6.8
- Ceiling
- 15.0
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 34%
- Floor
- 1.4
- Median
- 5.8
- Ceiling
- 15.3
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 44%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dallas GoedertTE, PHI, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Darren WallerTE, CAR, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.0 | 7.5 |
| PPR projection | 9.9 | 8.7 |
| Standard projection | 6.1 | 6.3 |
| Rank this week | TE11 | TE15 |
| Matchup | vs NYG | vs DEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.5 | 6.6 |
| Last season per game | 10.3 | 8.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 80% | 62% |
| Trade value | — | — |