George KittleorIsaiah Likely?
Week 7 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start George Kittle
George Kittle outscores Isaiah Likely in 60% of simulations.
Isaiah Likely still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so George Kittle is the better bet, not a sure thing. George Kittle projects 2.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 7. The matchups don't separate them: George Kittle faces the Atlanta Falcons (9% fewer than average to TEs), Isaiah Likely faces the Houston Texans (16% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.0
- Median
- 10.6
- Ceiling
- 22.3
- Big game (15+):
- 29%
- Dud (under 5):
- 15%
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 19.7
- Big game (15+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 5):
- 31%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | George KittleTE, SF, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET | Isaiah LikelyTE, NYG, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.0 | 9.8 |
| PPR projection | 14.2 | 12.0 |
| Standard projection | 9.7 | 7.7 |
| Rank this week | TE4 | TE7 |
| Matchup | at ATL | at HOU |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.8 | 15.0 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 4.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 89% | 91% |
| Trade value | 29 | 18 |