George KittleorHarold Fannin Jr.?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start George Kittle
George Kittle outscores Harold Fannin Jr. in 60% of simulations.
Harold Fannin Jr. still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so George Kittle is the better bet, not a sure thing. George Kittle projects 2.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Harold Fannin Jr. has the better matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers (11% more than average to TEs); George Kittle faces the Denver Broncos (3% more than average to TEs). George Kittle still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 12.0
- Ceiling
- 25.7
- Big game (15+):
- 36%
- Dud (under 5):
- 13%
- Floor
- 3.6
- Median
- 9.7
- Ceiling
- 19.8
- Big game (15+):
- 22%
- Dud (under 5):
- 18%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | George KittleTE, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Harold Fannin Jr.TE, CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.6 | 11.0 |
| PPR projection | 16.0 | 13.6 |
| Standard projection | 11.2 | 8.5 |
| Rank this week | TE1 | TE5 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | vs PIT |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.8 | 10.5 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 9.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 85% | 86% |
| Trade value | 28 | 9 |