George KittleorTrey McBride?
Week 9 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Trey McBride
Trey McBride outscores George Kittle in 57% of simulations.
George Kittle still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Trey McBride is the better bet, not a sure thing. Trey McBride projects 1.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. George Kittle has the better matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders (3% more than average to TEs); Trey McBride faces the Seattle Seahawks (11% fewer than average to TEs). Trey McBride still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 11.2
- Ceiling
- 23.0
- Big game (15+):
- 32%
- Dud (under 5):
- 14%
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 12.8
- Ceiling
- 23.1
- Big game (15+):
- 37%
- Dud (under 5):
- 6%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | George KittleTE, SF, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET | Trey McBrideTE, ARI, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.6 | 13.9 |
| PPR projection | 15.3 | 17.6 |
| Standard projection | 9.9 | 10.3 |
| Rank this week | TE4 | TE2 |
| Matchup | vs LV | at SEA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.5 | 14.7 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 14.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 91% | 95% |
| Trade value | 27 | 43 |