Trey McBrideorTucker Kraft?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Trey McBride
Trey McBride outscores Tucker Kraft in 63% of simulations.
Tucker Kraft still comes out ahead in the other 37%, so Trey McBride is the better bet, not a sure thing. Trey McBride projects 2.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Tucker Kraft has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20% more than average to TEs); Trey McBride faces the New York Giants (15% fewer than average to TEs). Trey McBride still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Trey McBride wins 58%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.6
- Median
- 12.3
- Ceiling
- 22.8
- Big game (15+):
- 34%
- Dud (under 5):
- 7%
- Floor
- 2.8
- Median
- 9.2
- Ceiling
- 20.8
- Big game (15+):
- 24%
- Dud (under 5):
- 24%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Trey McBrideTE, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tucker KraftTE, GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.5 | 11.0 |
| PPR projection | 17.1 | 13.0 |
| Standard projection | 10.0 | 8.9 |
| Rank this week | TE1 | TE4 |
| Matchup | at NYG | at TB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.4 | 5.0 |
| Last season per game | 14.9 | 12.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 91% | 76% |
| Trade value | 43 | 6 |