Travis KelceorTucker Kraft?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce outscores Tucker Kraft in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Tucker Kraft comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Travis Kelce, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tucker Kraft projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Tucker Kraft has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20% more than average to TEs); Travis Kelce faces the Las Vegas Raiders (2% fewer than average to TEs). Travis Kelce still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.8
- Median
- 9.6
- Ceiling
- 19.8
- Big game (15+):
- 23%
- Dud (under 5):
- 17%
- Floor
- 2.8
- Median
- 9.2
- Ceiling
- 20.8
- Big game (15+):
- 24%
- Dud (under 5):
- 24%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Travis KelceTE, KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Tucker KraftTE, GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.9 | 11.0 |
| PPR projection | 13.1 | 13.0 |
| Standard projection | 8.6 | 8.9 |
| Rank this week | TE5 | TE4 |
| Matchup | at LV | at TB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.0 | 5.0 |
| Last season per game | 9.1 | 12.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 79% | 76% |
| Trade value | 14 | 6 |