Pat FreiermuthorTucker Kraft?
Week 10 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Tucker Kraft
Tucker Kraft outscores Pat Freiermuth in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Pat Freiermuth comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Tucker Kraft, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Pat Freiermuth projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Pat Freiermuth has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (39% more than average to TEs); Tucker Kraft faces the Minnesota Vikings (34% fewer than average to TEs). Tucker Kraft still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.8
- Median
- 6.9
- Ceiling
- 17.6
- Big game (15+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 5):
- 35%
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 7.2
- Ceiling
- 15.6
- Big game (15+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 5):
- 32%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET | Tucker KraftTE, GB, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.5 | 8.4 |
| PPR projection | 10.1 | 10.1 |
| Standard projection | 6.9 | 6.7 |
| Rank this week | TE10 | TE12 |
| Matchup | at CIN | vs MIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.3 | 8.0 |
| Last season per game | 6.2 | 12.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 53% | 82% |
| Trade value | — | 10 |