Darren WallerorPat Freiermuth?
Week 10 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Pat Freiermuth
Pat Freiermuth outscores Darren Waller in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Darren Waller comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Pat Freiermuth, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Darren Waller projects 0.5 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Pat Freiermuth has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (39% more than average to TEs); Darren Waller faces the New Orleans Saints (7% more than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.8
- Median
- 6.9
- Ceiling
- 18.4
- Big game (15+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 5):
- 36%
- Floor
- 1.8
- Median
- 6.9
- Ceiling
- 17.6
- Big game (15+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 5):
- 35%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Darren WallerTE, CAR, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.0 | 8.5 |
| PPR projection | 10.5 | 10.1 |
| Standard projection | 7.5 | 6.9 |
| Rank this week | TE7 | TE10 |
| Matchup | at NO | at CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.2 | 8.3 |
| Last season per game | 8.5 | 6.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 53% | 53% |
| Trade value | — | — |