Harold Fannin Jr.orTravis Kelce?

Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.

Our call

Lean Travis Kelce

Travis Kelce outscores Harold Fannin Jr. in 51% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Harold Fannin Jr. comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Travis Kelce, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Travis Kelce projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Harold Fannin Jr. has the better matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers (11% more than average to TEs); Travis Kelce faces the Las Vegas Raiders (2% fewer than average to TEs). Travis Kelce still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Harold Fannin Jr.
Floor
3.6
Median
9.7
Ceiling
19.8
Big game (15+):
22%
Dud (under 5):
18%
Travis Kelce
Floor
4.0
Median
10.0
Ceiling
20.5
Big game (15+):
25%
Dud (under 5):
16%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatHarold Fannin Jr.TE, CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ETTravis KelceTE, KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection11.011.3
PPR projection13.613.6
Standard projection8.59.1
Rank this weekTE5TE4
Matchupvs PITat LV
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game10.514.0
Last season per game9.49.1
Snap share, last game86%79%
Trade value916