Isaiah LikelyorMike Gesicki?
Week 10 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Isaiah Likely
Isaiah Likely outscores Mike Gesicki in 60% of simulations.
Mike Gesicki still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Isaiah Likely is the better bet, not a sure thing. Isaiah Likely projects 3.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Isaiah Likely has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (34% more than average to TEs); Mike Gesicki faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (9% more than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 8.8
- Ceiling
- 22.8
- Big game (15+):
- 25%
- Dud (under 5):
- 28%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 6.7
- Ceiling
- 15.3
- Big game (15+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 5):
- 35%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Isaiah LikelyTE, NYG, Thu, Nov 12, 8:15 p.m. ET | Mike GesickiTE, CIN, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.1 | 7.9 |
| PPR projection | 13.5 | 9.2 |
| Standard projection | 8.6 | 6.6 |
| Rank this week | TE4 | TE15 |
| Matchup | vs WAS | vs PIT |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.2 | 10.1 |
| Last season per game | 4.0 | 4.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 75% | 47% |
| Trade value | 10 | — |