Darren WallerorTravis Kelce?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce outscores Darren Waller in 57% of simulations.
Darren Waller still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Travis Kelce is the better bet, not a sure thing. Travis Kelce projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Darren Waller has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (45% more than average to TEs); Travis Kelce faces the Las Vegas Raiders (2% fewer than average to TEs). Travis Kelce still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 8.2
- Ceiling
- 21.0
- Big game (15+):
- 22%
- Dud (under 5):
- 30%
- Floor
- 4.0
- Median
- 10.0
- Ceiling
- 20.5
- Big game (15+):
- 25%
- Dud (under 5):
- 16%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Darren WallerTE, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET | Travis KelceTE, KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.4 | 11.3 |
| PPR projection | 12.1 | 13.6 |
| Standard projection | 8.6 | 9.1 |
| Rank this week | TE8 | TE4 |
| Matchup | vs DET | at LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.4 | 14.0 |
| Last season per game | 8.5 | 9.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 51% | 79% |
| Trade value | — | 16 |