Travis KelceorTyler Warren?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Tyler Warren
Tyler Warren outscores Travis Kelce in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Travis Kelce comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Tyler Warren, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Travis Kelce projects 0.4 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Tyler Warren has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (38% more than average to TEs); Travis Kelce faces the Las Vegas Raiders (2% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.0
- Median
- 10.0
- Ceiling
- 20.5
- Big game (15+):
- 25%
- Dud (under 5):
- 16%
- Floor
- 4.5
- Median
- 10.0
- Ceiling
- 18.5
- Big game (15+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 5):
- 13%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Travis KelceTE, KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Tyler WarrenTE, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.3 | 10.9 |
| PPR projection | 13.6 | 14.0 |
| Standard projection | 9.1 | 7.8 |
| Rank this week | TE4 | TE6 |
| Matchup | at LV | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.0 | 10.1 |
| Last season per game | 9.1 | 8.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 79% | 94% |
| Trade value | 16 | 3 |