Trey McBrideorTyler Warren?

Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.

Our call

Start Trey McBride

Trey McBride outscores Tyler Warren in 61% of simulations.

Tyler Warren still comes out ahead in the other 39%, so Trey McBride is the better bet, not a sure thing. Trey McBride projects 2.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Tyler Warren has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (38% more than average to TEs); Trey McBride faces the New York Giants (15% fewer than average to TEs). Trey McBride still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Trey McBride
Floor
5.6
Median
12.3
Ceiling
22.8
Big game (15+):
34%
Dud (under 5):
7%
Tyler Warren
Floor
4.5
Median
10.0
Ceiling
18.5
Big game (15+):
21%
Dud (under 5):
13%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatTrey McBrideTE, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETTyler WarrenTE, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET
Half-PPR projection13.510.9
PPR projection17.114.0
Standard projection9.97.8
Rank this weekTE2TE6
Matchupat NYGat WAS
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game15.410.1
Last season per game14.98.9
Snap share, last game91%94%
Trade value383