George KittleorTyler Warren?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start George Kittle
George Kittle outscores Tyler Warren in 58% of simulations.
Tyler Warren still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so George Kittle is the better bet, not a sure thing. George Kittle projects 2.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Tyler Warren has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (38% more than average to TEs); George Kittle faces the Denver Broncos (3% more than average to TEs). George Kittle still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 11.8
- Ceiling
- 25.3
- Big game (15+):
- 35%
- Dud (under 5):
- 14%
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 18.2
- Big game (15+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 5):
- 13%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | George KittleTE, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Tyler WarrenTE, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.4 | 10.7 |
| PPR projection | 15.8 | 13.7 |
| Standard projection | 10.9 | 7.8 |
| Rank this week | TE2 | TE6 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.8 | 10.1 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 8.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 85% | 94% |
| Trade value | 29 | 2 |