George KittleorTucker Kraft?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start George Kittle
George Kittle outscores Tucker Kraft in 60% of simulations.
Tucker Kraft still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so George Kittle is the better bet, not a sure thing. George Kittle projects 2.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Tucker Kraft has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20% more than average to TEs); George Kittle faces the Denver Broncos (3% more than average to TEs). George Kittle still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.3
- Median
- 11.8
- Ceiling
- 25.3
- Big game (15+):
- 35%
- Dud (under 5):
- 14%
- Floor
- 2.8
- Median
- 9.2
- Ceiling
- 20.8
- Big game (15+):
- 24%
- Dud (under 5):
- 24%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | George KittleTE, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Tucker KraftTE, GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.4 | 11.0 |
| PPR projection | 15.8 | 13.0 |
| Standard projection | 10.9 | 8.9 |
| Rank this week | TE2 | TE4 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | at TB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.8 | 5.0 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 12.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 85% | 76% |
| Trade value | 30 | 6 |