Travis KelceorTrey McBride?
Week 9 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Trey McBride
Trey McBride outscores Travis Kelce in 71% of simulations.
Travis Kelce still comes out ahead in the other 29%, so Trey McBride is the better bet, not a sure thing. Trey McBride projects 4.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Travis Kelce has the better matchup against the New York Jets (8% more than average to TEs); Trey McBride faces the Seattle Seahawks (11% fewer than average to TEs). Trey McBride still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.2
- Median
- 8.3
- Ceiling
- 17.3
- Big game (15+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 5):
- 23%
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 12.8
- Ceiling
- 23.1
- Big game (15+):
- 37%
- Dud (under 5):
- 6%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Travis KelceTE, KC, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Trey McBrideTE, ARI, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.5 | 13.9 |
| PPR projection | 11.7 | 17.6 |
| Standard projection | 7.2 | 10.3 |
| Rank this week | TE8 | TE2 |
| Matchup | vs NYJ | at SEA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.6 | 14.7 |
| Last season per game | 9.1 | 14.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 78% | 95% |
| Trade value | 2 | 43 |