Harold Fannin Jr.orTrey McBride?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Trey McBride
Trey McBride outscores Harold Fannin Jr. in 61% of simulations.
Harold Fannin Jr. still comes out ahead in the other 39%, so Trey McBride is the better bet, not a sure thing. Trey McBride projects 2.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Harold Fannin Jr. has the better matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers (11% more than average to TEs); Trey McBride faces the New York Giants (15% fewer than average to TEs). Trey McBride still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.6
- Median
- 9.7
- Ceiling
- 19.8
- Big game (15+):
- 22%
- Dud (under 5):
- 18%
- Floor
- 5.6
- Median
- 12.3
- Ceiling
- 22.8
- Big game (15+):
- 34%
- Dud (under 5):
- 7%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Harold Fannin Jr.TE, CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET | Trey McBrideTE, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.0 | 13.5 |
| PPR projection | 13.6 | 17.1 |
| Standard projection | 8.5 | 9.9 |
| Rank this week | TE5 | TE2 |
| Matchup | vs PIT | at NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.5 | 15.4 |
| Last season per game | 9.4 | 14.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 91% |
| Trade value | 9 | 38 |