Pat FreiermuthorTravis Kelce?
Week 6 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Pat Freiermuth
Pat Freiermuth outscores Travis Kelce in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Travis Kelce comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Pat Freiermuth, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Pat Freiermuth projects 1.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Pat Freiermuth has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (19% more than average to TEs); Travis Kelce faces the Los Angeles Chargers (25% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 7.8
- Ceiling
- 19.5
- Big game (15+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 5):
- 31%
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 7.2
- Ceiling
- 15.4
- Big game (15+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 5):
- 30%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Travis KelceTE, KC, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.5 | 8.3 |
| PPR projection | 11.3 | 10.1 |
| Standard projection | 7.7 | 6.5 |
| Rank this week | TE8 | TE11 |
| Matchup | at TB | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.2 | 11.2 |
| Last season per game | 6.2 | 9.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 68% | 83% |
| Trade value | — | 8 |