Brock BowersorJuwan Johnson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Brock Bowers
Brock Bowers outscores Juwan Johnson in 58% of simulations.
Juwan Johnson still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Brock Bowers is the better bet, not a sure thing. Brock Bowers projects 2.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Brock Bowers faces the Kansas City Chiefs (14% fewer than average to TEs), Juwan Johnson faces the Atlanta Falcons (10% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.4
- Median
- 10.6
- Ceiling
- 23.3
- Big game (15+):
- 30%
- Dud (under 5):
- 19%
- Floor
- 3.8
- Median
- 8.7
- Ceiling
- 16.8
- Big game (15+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 5):
- 18%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brock BowersTE, LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Juwan JohnsonTE, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.5 | 9.7 |
| PPR projection | 15.3 | 12.0 |
| Standard projection | 9.7 | 7.5 |
| Rank this week | TE3 | TE7 |
| Matchup | vs KC | vs ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 22.6 | 13.6 |
| Last season per game | 12.0 | 8.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 79% | 62% |
| Trade value | 33 | 10 |