Juwan JohnsonorTravis Kelce?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce outscores Juwan Johnson in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Juwan Johnson comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Travis Kelce, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Travis Kelce projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Travis Kelce has the better matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders (2% fewer than average to TEs); Juwan Johnson faces the Atlanta Falcons (10% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.8
- Median
- 8.7
- Ceiling
- 16.8
- Big game (15+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 5):
- 19%
- Floor
- 3.8
- Median
- 9.6
- Ceiling
- 19.6
- Big game (15+):
- 22%
- Dud (under 5):
- 17%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Juwan JohnsonTE, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | Travis KelceTE, KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.7 | 10.8 |
| PPR projection | 12.0 | 13.1 |
| Standard projection | 7.5 | 8.6 |
| Rank this week | TE9 | TE5 |
| Matchup | vs ATL | at LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.6 | 14.0 |
| Last season per game | 8.3 | 9.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 62% | 79% |
| Trade value | 10 | 14 |