Brenton StrangeorJuwan Johnson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Juwan Johnson
Juwan Johnson outscores Brenton Strange in 59% of simulations.
Brenton Strange still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Juwan Johnson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Juwan Johnson projects 1.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Brenton Strange has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (53% more than average to TEs); Juwan Johnson faces the Atlanta Falcons (10% fewer than average to TEs). Juwan Johnson still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 7.1
- Ceiling
- 14.4
- Big game (15+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 5):
- 30%
- Floor
- 3.8
- Median
- 8.7
- Ceiling
- 16.8
- Big game (15+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 5):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brenton StrangeTE, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Juwan JohnsonTE, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.0 | 9.7 |
| PPR projection | 9.9 | 12.0 |
| Standard projection | 6.1 | 7.5 |
| Rank this week | TE15 | TE11 |
| Matchup | at CIN | vs ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.6 | 13.6 |
| Last season per game | 7.9 | 8.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 77% | 62% |
| Trade value | — | 10 |