Brenton StrangeorMike Gesicki?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Brenton Strange
Brenton Strange outscores Mike Gesicki in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Mike Gesicki comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Brenton Strange, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Mike Gesicki projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Brenton Strange has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (53% more than average to TEs); Mike Gesicki faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (4% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.8
- Median
- 6.8
- Ceiling
- 13.8
- Big game (15+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 5):
- 31%
- Floor
- 1.9
- Median
- 6.5
- Ceiling
- 15.7
- Big game (15+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 5):
- 36%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brenton StrangeTE, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Mike GesickiTE, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.7 | 7.9 |
| PPR projection | 9.6 | 9.3 |
| Standard projection | 5.9 | 6.5 |
| Rank this week | TE16 | TE15 |
| Matchup | at CIN | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.6 | 13.8 |
| Last season per game | 7.9 | 4.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 77% | 51% |
| Trade value | — | — |