Brenton StrangeorMike Gesicki?

Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.

Our call

Lean Brenton Strange

Brenton Strange outscores Mike Gesicki in 52% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Mike Gesicki comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Brenton Strange, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Mike Gesicki projects 0.2 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Brenton Strange has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (53% more than average to TEs); Mike Gesicki faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (4% fewer than average to TEs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Brenton Strange
Floor
2.8
Median
6.8
Ceiling
13.8
Big game (15+):
7%
Dud (under 5):
31%
Mike Gesicki
Floor
1.9
Median
6.5
Ceiling
15.7
Big game (15+):
11%
Dud (under 5):
36%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatBrenton StrangeTE, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETMike GesickiTE, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection7.77.9
PPR projection9.69.3
Standard projection5.96.5
Rank this weekTE16TE15
Matchupat CINvs JAX
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game5.613.8
Last season per game7.94.7
Snap share, last game77%51%
Trade value——