Juwan JohnsonorSam LaPorta?

Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.

Our call

Start Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson outscores Sam LaPorta in 56% of simulations.

Sam LaPorta still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Juwan Johnson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Juwan Johnson projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Sam LaPorta has the better matchup against the Carolina Panthers (6% more than average to TEs); Juwan Johnson faces the Atlanta Falcons (10% fewer than average to TEs). Juwan Johnson still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Juwan Johnson
Floor
4.0
Median
9.3
Ceiling
17.9
Big game (15+):
18%
Dud (under 5):
16%
Sam LaPorta
Floor
3.2
Median
8.4
Ceiling
17.6
Big game (15+):
16%
Dud (under 5):
24%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatJuwan JohnsonTE, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ETSam LaPortaTE, DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection10.39.7
PPR projection12.512.0
Standard projection8.07.4
Rank this weekTE9TE11
Matchupvs ATLat CAR
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game13.69.1
Last season per game8.39.7
Snap share, last game62%92%
Trade value122