Darren WallerorJuwan Johnson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Juwan Johnson
Juwan Johnson outscores Darren Waller in 56% of simulations.
Darren Waller still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Juwan Johnson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Darren Waller projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Darren Waller has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (45% more than average to TEs); Juwan Johnson faces the Atlanta Falcons (10% fewer than average to TEs). Juwan Johnson still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 8.2
- Ceiling
- 21.0
- Big game (15+):
- 22%
- Dud (under 5):
- 30%
- Floor
- 4.0
- Median
- 9.3
- Ceiling
- 17.9
- Big game (15+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 5):
- 16%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Darren WallerTE, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET | Juwan JohnsonTE, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.4 | 10.3 |
| PPR projection | 12.1 | 12.5 |
| Standard projection | 8.6 | 8.0 |
| Rank this week | TE8 | TE9 |
| Matchup | vs DET | vs ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.4 | 13.6 |
| Last season per game | 8.5 | 8.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 51% | 62% |
| Trade value | — | 12 |