Dalton KincaidorGeorge Kittle?
Week 10 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start George Kittle
George Kittle outscores Dalton Kincaid in 60% of simulations.
Dalton Kincaid still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so George Kittle is the better bet, not a sure thing. George Kittle projects 2.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Dalton Kincaid has the better matchup against the New York Jets (11% more than average to TEs); George Kittle faces the Dallas Cowboys (8% fewer than average to TEs). George Kittle still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 7.8
- Ceiling
- 17.8
- Big game (15+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 5):
- 30%
- Floor
- 3.9
- Median
- 9.9
- Ceiling
- 20.4
- Big game (15+):
- 25%
- Dud (under 5):
- 17%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dalton KincaidTE, BUF, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | George KittleTE, SF, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.0 | 11.2 |
| PPR projection | 10.9 | 13.6 |
| Standard projection | 7.1 | 8.8 |
| Rank this week | TE7 | TE3 |
| Matchup | at NYJ | at DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.7 | 11.9 |
| Last season per game | 8.9 | 12.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 50% | 78% |
| Trade value | — | 29 |