Dallas GoedertorGeorge Kittle?
Week 5 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start George Kittle
George Kittle outscores Dallas Goedert in 62% of simulations.
Dallas Goedert still comes out ahead in the other 38%, so George Kittle is the better bet, not a sure thing. George Kittle projects 3.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: George Kittle faces the Seattle Seahawks (1% fewer than average to TEs), Dallas Goedert faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (2% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.0
- Median
- 8.6
- Ceiling
- 19.5
- Big game (15+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 5):
- 24%
- Floor
- 4.4
- Median
- 11.8
- Ceiling
- 24.7
- Big game (15+):
- 35%
- Dud (under 5):
- 13%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dallas GoedertTE, PHI, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET | George KittleTE, SF, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.3 | 13.3 |
| PPR projection | 12.0 | 15.6 |
| Standard projection | 8.5 | 10.9 |
| Rank this week | TE5 | TE2 |
| Matchup | at JAX | at SEA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.3 | 14.1 |
| Last season per game | 10.3 | 12.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 25% | 91% |
| Trade value | 20 | 44 |