Dallas GoedertorTrey McBride?
Week 5 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Trey McBride
Trey McBride outscores Dallas Goedert in 71% of simulations.
Dallas Goedert still comes out ahead in the other 29%, so Trey McBride is the better bet, not a sure thing. Trey McBride projects 5.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Trey McBride has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (42% more than average to TEs); Dallas Goedert faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (2% fewer than average to TEs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Trey McBride wins 66%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.0
- Median
- 8.6
- Ceiling
- 19.5
- Big game (15+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 5):
- 24%
- Floor
- 6.5
- Median
- 14.4
- Ceiling
- 26.8
- Big game (15+):
- 47%
- Dud (under 5):
- 5%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dallas GoedertTE, PHI, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET | Trey McBrideTE, ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.3 | 15.8 |
| PPR projection | 12.0 | 20.3 |
| Standard projection | 8.5 | 11.4 |
| Rank this week | TE5 | TE1 |
| Matchup | at JAX | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.3 | 13.2 |
| Last season per game | 10.3 | 14.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 25% | 97% |
| Trade value | 20 | 46 |