Dallas GoedertorDalton Kincaid?
Week 9 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Dallas Goedert
Dallas Goedert outscores Dalton Kincaid in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Dalton Kincaid comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Dallas Goedert, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Dallas Goedert projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Dallas Goedert has the better matchup against the New York Giants (16% fewer than average to TEs); Dalton Kincaid faces the Minnesota Vikings (35% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 6.8
- Ceiling
- 15.0
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 34%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 6.7
- Ceiling
- 15.1
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 36%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dallas GoedertTE, PHI, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Dalton KincaidTE, BUF, Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.0 | 7.7 |
| PPR projection | 9.9 | 9.2 |
| Standard projection | 6.1 | 6.2 |
| Rank this week | TE11 | TE14 |
| Matchup | vs NYG | at MIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.5 | 9.4 |
| Last season per game | 10.3 | 8.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 80% | 57% |
| Trade value | — | 2 |