Dalton KincaidorMike Gesicki?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Dalton Kincaid
Dalton Kincaid outscores Mike Gesicki in 59% of simulations.
Mike Gesicki still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Dalton Kincaid is the better bet, not a sure thing. Dalton Kincaid projects 1.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Dalton Kincaid faces the New England Patriots (10% fewer than average to TEs), Mike Gesicki faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (4% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.4
- Ceiling
- 18.2
- Big game (15+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 5):
- 25%
- Floor
- 1.9
- Median
- 6.5
- Ceiling
- 15.7
- Big game (15+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 5):
- 36%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Dalton KincaidTE, BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Mike GesickiTE, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.6 | 7.9 |
| PPR projection | 11.4 | 9.3 |
| Standard projection | 7.8 | 6.5 |
| Rank this week | TE12 | TE15 |
| Matchup | vs NE | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.4 | 13.8 |
| Last season per game | 8.9 | 4.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 67% | 51% |
| Trade value | 7 | — |