Brenton StrangeorIsaiah Likely?

Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.

Our call

Start Brenton Strange

Brenton Strange outscores Isaiah Likely in 58% of simulations.

Isaiah Likely still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Brenton Strange is the better bet, not a sure thing. Brenton Strange projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Brenton Strange has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (53% more than average to TEs); Isaiah Likely faces the Arizona Cardinals (31% more than average to TEs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Brenton Strange
Floor
2.8
Median
6.8
Ceiling
13.8
Big game (15+):
7%
Dud (under 5):
31%
Isaiah Likely
Floor
1.1
Median
5.7
Ceiling
16.6
Big game (15+):
13%
Dud (under 5):
46%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatBrenton StrangeTE, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETIsaiah LikelyTE, NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection7.77.5
PPR projection9.69.5
Standard projection5.95.6
Rank this weekTE16TE17
Matchupat CINvs ARI
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game5.610.6
Last season per game7.94.0
Snap share, last game77%84%
Trade value——