Isaiah LikelyorNoah Fant?

Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.

Our call

Lean Isaiah Likely

Isaiah Likely outscores Noah Fant in 53% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Noah Fant comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Isaiah Likely, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Isaiah Likely projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Isaiah Likely has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (31% more than average to TEs); Noah Fant faces the Atlanta Falcons (10% fewer than average to TEs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Isaiah Likely
Floor
1.1
Median
5.7
Ceiling
16.6
Big game (15+):
13%
Dud (under 5):
46%
Noah Fant
Floor
1.2
Median
5.1
Ceiling
13.6
Big game (15+):
8%
Dud (under 5):
50%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatIsaiah LikelyTE, NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETNoah FantTE, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection7.56.5
PPR projection9.57.8
Standard projection5.65.3
Rank this weekTE17TE18
Matchupvs ARIvs ATL
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game10.69.5
Last season per game4.04.4
Snap share, last game84%57%
Trade value——