Isaiah LikelyorNoah Fant?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Isaiah Likely
Isaiah Likely outscores Noah Fant in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Noah Fant comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Isaiah Likely, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Isaiah Likely projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Isaiah Likely has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (31% more than average to TEs); Noah Fant faces the Atlanta Falcons (10% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.1
- Median
- 5.7
- Ceiling
- 16.6
- Big game (15+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 5):
- 46%
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 5.1
- Ceiling
- 13.6
- Big game (15+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 5):
- 50%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Isaiah LikelyTE, NYG, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Noah FantTE, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| PPR projection | 9.5 | 7.8 |
| Standard projection | 5.6 | 5.3 |
| Rank this week | TE17 | TE18 |
| Matchup | vs ARI | vs ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.6 | 9.5 |
| Last season per game | 4.0 | 4.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 84% | 57% |
| Trade value | — | — |