Jake FergusonorNoah Fant?
Week 10 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Jake Ferguson
Jake Ferguson outscores Noah Fant in 69% of simulations.
Noah Fant still comes out ahead in the other 31%, so Jake Ferguson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jake Ferguson projects 2.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. The matchups don't separate them: Jake Ferguson faces the San Francisco 49ers (3% more than average to TEs), Noah Fant faces the Carolina Panthers (2% more than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 12.9
- Big game (15+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 5):
- 47%
- Floor
- 0.5
- Median
- 2.9
- Ceiling
- 9.0
- Big game (15+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 5):
- 71%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jake FergusonTE, DAL, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET | Noah FantTE, NO, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.6 | 4.1 |
| PPR projection | 8.2 | 5.1 |
| Standard projection | 5.0 | 3.2 |
| Rank this week | TE23 | TE38 |
| Matchup | vs SF | vs CAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.6 | 4.8 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 4.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 34% | 47% |
| Trade value | — | — |