Jake FergusonorNoah Fant?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Jake Ferguson
Jake Ferguson outscores Noah Fant in 62% of simulations.
Noah Fant still comes out ahead in the other 38%, so Jake Ferguson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jake Ferguson projects 2.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Jake Ferguson faces the Houston Texans (9% fewer than average to TEs), Noah Fant faces the Atlanta Falcons (10% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 7.2
- Ceiling
- 16.3
- Big game (15+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 5):
- 33%
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 5.1
- Ceiling
- 13.6
- Big game (15+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 5):
- 50%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jake FergusonTE, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Noah FantTE, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.6 | 6.5 |
| PPR projection | 10.5 | 7.8 |
| Standard projection | 6.7 | 5.3 |
| Rank this week | TE14 | TE18 |
| Matchup | at HOU | vs ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.2 | 9.5 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 4.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 69% | 57% |
| Trade value | — | — |